我很高兴参加今天的网上对话。在中美关系正处于十字路口的重要时刻，中美关系何去何从？这也是世界各国都担忧的大问题。我相信，今天在线论坛会有助于我们更深入的思考。

I am very happy to participate in this online dialogue. With China-US relations now at a crossroads, the future of the relationship is an issue of global concern. I believe this online forum will help us delve deeply into the issue.

回想2000年是美国的总统大选年，那年，我在访美前受约瑟夫·W·普理赫大使（Joseph Prueher）邀请去美国大使馆会面，并接受美联社等媒体采访。我说中美关系虽有进步，但仍不算好。记者问“你看，什么时候美中关系就算是变好了？”我回答“当美国竞选总统时，候选人不再用攻击中国获得选票的时候，两国关系就到了新阶段。”我一直深感两国人民间的陌生和误解是中美关系间的重大障碍。

Now I think of the year 2000, a US election year when, prior to my US visit, I was invited by Joseph W. Prueher, then US ambassador to China, for a meeting at the American embassy, where I was interviewed by The Associate Press and other media. I said that in spite of progress in China-US relations, there's still much to be desired. To media inquiry as to when China-US relations would be viewed as satisfactory, my reply was: “When candidates during US presidential elections no longer need to canvass for votes by attacking China, we can say the relationship has reached a new stage.” I always feel that lack of understanding and misunderstanding between the two peoples constitute major obstacles to China-US relations.

今年又是美国大选年了。我看到了一张政治漫画：共和党和民主党立场一致，把如何遏制“中国崛起的威胁”作为主题，向中国射出很多飞镖。诸如此类的宣传导致美国民众对中国的负面认知剧增，美国国内民族主义情绪高涨。

This year is again US election year. I remember seeing a cartoon showing how the Republicans and Democrats, with their consensus on managing the “threat of China's rise,” are both throwing darts at China. Such propaganda will only add to the American public’s negative perception of China, and play on the nationalist sentiments in the US.

从2018年中美贸易战开始以来，中国一直以诚心和诚信与美方进行了多轮谈判。今年1月，终于取得了谈判的成功，但美方仍旧坚持把中国列为最主要的对手继续攻击。2017年12月，特朗普政府发表《美国国家安全战略报告》，宣布中国是美国的战略竞争者和主要对手。2019年6月，美国国防部发布《印太战略报告》，提出美国国家安全的首要担忧，矛头直指中国。就在今年5月，白宫又发布了《美国对中国战略方针》，宣称“中国正在经济、价值观和国家安全三大方面对美国发起强烈挑战。”凡此种种，表明美国正在制造中美之间的“修昔底德陷阱”。

Since the beginning of the China-US trade war in 2018, China has, in the spirit of sincerity and trust, attended multiple rounds of negotiations with the US, with success finally reached this January. Nevertheless, the US side continues to attack China as its major rival. In the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy of the United States of America in December 2017, China is identified as a strategic competitor and chief rival. In the US Department of Defense’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Report in June 2019, China is described as the primary concern to US national security. In the United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China published in May 2020 by the White House, it claims that Americans have more reason than ever to understand the threats China poses to American economic interests, security and values. All these suggest the US is working hard to lay the Thucydides Trap in terms of China-US relations.

2017年，哈佛大学的格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）教授出版了《注定一战》（DESTINED FOR WAR），这本书很快有了中译本。但是，中国读者并不认为中美会重复历史上发生过的争霸之战。美国强硬派说美国的主要敌人并不是恐怖主义，而是一个主权国家。冷战后美国需要新的敌人，美国的新保守主义势力要把中美关系逼入“修昔底德陷阱”。

In 2017, professor Graham Allison from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government published a book entitled “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?” It was soon followed by a Chinese translation, though Chinese readers do not think that China and the US will repeat the wars for supremacy that have taken place in the past. Hawks in America claim that America’s chief rival is not terrorism, but a sovereign state. Post-Cold War America needs a new enemy, and neoconservative forces in America are co-opting China-US relations into the Thucydides Trap.

历史可以证明中国有悠久的“和为贵”的文化传统。在15世纪初，中国明朝政府派出的强大的郑和船队的远航不是为了开辟殖民地，只是为了宣扬国威和加强与海外诸国的联系。在今天，还有亚洲的历史学家和政治家问我，西班牙哥伦布船队规模虽小得多，却有直接的经济利益和对土地的追求，中国那么大的花费，但没追求任何土地和财富，中国人到底是为了什么？他们至今仍百思不得其解！

History has shown China’s time-honored cultural tradition in commending the value of harmony. In the 15th century, the Ming Dynasty dispatched abroad a powerful fleet led by Zheng He, not for the sake of colonizing, but to spread national prestige and to tighten ties with overseas nations. Even today I am still told from time to time by some historians and politicians in Asia that while the fleet led by Christopher Columbus was much smaller, they were in quest of direct economic interests and land. By contrast, the Chinese had no such pursuits and the historians are bewildered as to the true motive behind the costly trip.

中国长期存在的和周边国家的“朝贡秩序”（Tributary system）并非殖民主义制度，而是以“和为贵”的信仰维持了与周边国家长期的和平。我愿意补充一段经常被忽略的史实，明朝洪武年间，开国皇帝朱元璋宣布了一条给子孙的“训令”——永远不得对周边15个国家发动声讨战争。

The tributary system long sustained between China and its neighboring nations was not colonial, but a mechanism meant to perpetuate peace between neighboring nations in the faith of harmony. I would like to add here another less-known fact: In the reign of the first emperor of the Ming Dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang, also founder of the dynasty, issued an injunction to his posterity to the effect that they should never wage war against 15 neighboring countries.

1949年新中国成立了，可是以后又长期陷入冷战的漩涡中。上世纪80年代以后，中国走上了改革开放之路，中国开始进入了较快的发展过程。中国从毛泽东时代至今一再强调不走“国强必霸”的帝国主义道路，中国从来没有挑衅过美国，中国也绝不想参与一场新的冷战。

Soon after the founding of New China in 1949, the world entered a long period of Cold War. Since China’s reform and opening-up in the 1980s, China has entered a period of relatively rapid development. Since the time of Chairman Mao Zedong, China has reiterated its intention of not choosing the imperialist road. China has never provoked the US, nor does it intend to participate in a new Cold War.

美国对中国的遏制，最典型的案例是对华为的敌视。美国没有任何证据，就断定华为对美国构成了安全威胁。甚至英国人也曾问“到底谁在怕华为？”“为什么要怕华为？”美国这样极端地扼杀华为，是毫无道理和极其蛮横的，是中国公众最看不懂的问题！中国人认为这是一个不折不扣的“伪命题”。

Typical of US containment of China is its hostility to Huawei. Without any evidence, the US pronounced Huawei a threat to US security. Even the British are wondering, “Who’s afraid of Huawei?” The US intention to stifle Huawei, utterly irrational and outrageous, is something beyond the understanding of the Chinese public. We Chinese believe the US claim is utterly a “pseudo-proposition.”

中美两国都需要在此关键时刻努力把握历史发展方向，应该有能力也有智慧避免所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”。恕我直率地说：美国强硬派对中国的崛起过敏了，美国全面遏制中国将是一个历史性错误！

Thus at this critical juncture, given firm grasp of historical drift, China and the US should have the capability and wisdom to avoid the Thucydides Trap. Forgive my frankness: American hawks have been hypersensitive to China’s rise, and the comprehensive containment of China by the US would only prove to be a historical mistake.

近几年来，中美关系跌入谷底，在政治、经济、安全和文化等方面矛盾和冲突不断。即便如此，习近平总书记仍多次强调，中美两国谁也离不开谁,合则两利,斗则俱伤,合作是最好的选择。

In recent years, with China-US relations sinking to all-time lows, and in spite of continuing frictions and hostilities in fields including politics, economics and security, Chinese President Xi Jinping continued to reiterate on many occasions that the two countries are mutually dependent, and both will gain from peaceful coexistence, and lose from confrontations. Cooperation is the best option.

我曾在上海担任副市长，1990年中国宣布了浦东开发，一时间国际舆论认为这只是口号，而非行动。在90年代，基辛格博士以上海作为中国经济的观察点，多次来浦东新区考察。他是第一个说“浦东开发不是口号，而是行动”的西方人士，以后的事实证明他是对的。眼前，推动中美关系的改善，也到了需要切实行动的时刻了。

I once served as vice mayor of Shanghai. When China announced the opening-up of Pudong, overwhelming international opinions at that time tended to suggest this was more slogan than substance. In the 1990s, with Shanghai as the point for observing Chinese economy, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger visited Pudong many times. He was one of the first from the West to claim that “Pudong's development was more action than slogan,” which has been proved right. Now is also the time for action in terms of improving China-US relations.

浦东很快由一片农田变成现代新市区。在浦东开发中有很多与美国人合作的故事：

浦东新建的三座超高层大楼，它们是中美合作的“产品”，它们的高度是400米、500米和600米。它们是浦东开发的标志，也是美国设计公司的高水平设计的标志。

Pudong has evolved from farmland into part of a modern metropolis, and in this process of development, there are many stories of collaboration with the Americans. The three tallest buildings in Pudong, measuring about 400, 500 and 600 meters respectively, are products of China-US collaboration. They are symbols of Pudong's development and the cutting-edge capacity of American design firms.

通用汽车集团和上海汽车集团的合资公司在1997年一年内建成投产，后又在全国建了几个整车生产基地，很快就达到年产400万辆，成为通用在全球效益最高的工厂。2009年通用遇到重大困难，申请了破产保护，上海合资方以最高的诚信和行动，协同理查德·瓦格纳先生一起挽救了通用。

Shanghai General Motors, a joint venture between General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp, was launched in 1997. It then led to several manufacturing bases across the country, with its annual production soon reaching 4 million vehicles, making it GM’s most profitable plant in the world. In 2009, when GM filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after meeting with major difficulties, GM’s Shanghai partner, in the spirit of sincerity and action and in cooperation with Mr Richard Wagner, helped save GM.

今年新的故事是特斯拉在上海浦东工厂的装配线开动了。人们问，明天还有新的故事吗？似乎任何人也不能给出肯定的答案！